{"id":685,"date":"2024-09-24T08:51:15","date_gmt":"2024-09-24T08:51:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/posse.keithlewiskeithlewis.com\/?p=685"},"modified":"2024-10-30T20:29:58","modified_gmt":"2024-10-30T20:29:58","slug":"trust-a-pollster-more-when-it-publishes-outliers-nate-silver","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/posse.keithlewiskeithlewis.com\/index.php\/2024\/09\/24\/trust-a-pollster-more-when-it-publishes-outliers-nate-silver\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cTrust a pollster more when it publishes \u2018outliers\u2019\u201d &#8211; Nate Silver"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>\u201cOr if you don\u2019t like the Silver Bulletin or 538 or RealClearPolitics averages, I\u2019ll offer another alternative. Make your own average. Seriously, it\u2019s not that hard. But I do have one stipulation: you have to publicly specify the rules ahead of time. I think you\u2019ll find that when you\u2019re forced to be consistent, to set standards that aren\u2019t governed by your ad hoc sense of the vibes or by your partisan preferences, you\u2019ll have a lot more sympathy for the polling aggregators \u2014 and you won\u2019t be as surprised when one of the outliers turns out to be right\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/trust-a-pollster-more-when-it-publishes\">https:\/\/www.natesilver.net\/p\/trust-a-pollster-more-when-it-publishes<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cOr if you don\u2019t like the Silver Bulletin or 538 or RealClearPolitics averages, I\u2019ll offer another alternative. Make your own average. Seriously, it\u2019s not that hard. But I do have one stipulation: you have to publicly specify the rules ahead of time. I think you\u2019ll find that when you\u2019re forced to be consistent, to set&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"webmentions_disabled":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[5,3,4,65],"class_list":["post-685","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-links_read","tag-extract","tag-linksread","tag-mastodon","tag-rss_source"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/posse.keithlewiskeithlewis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/685","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/posse.keithlewiskeithlewis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/posse.keithlewiskeithlewis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/posse.keithlewiskeithlewis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/posse.keithlewiskeithlewis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=685"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/posse.keithlewiskeithlewis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/685\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":686,"href":"https:\/\/posse.keithlewiskeithlewis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/685\/revisions\/686"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/posse.keithlewiskeithlewis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=685"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/posse.keithlewiskeithlewis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=685"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/posse.keithlewiskeithlewis.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=685"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}